← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Mon, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 38% | 26% | 2.56 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 32% | 46% | 3.08 | value: +41% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1558.00 | 250.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1642.18 | 1612.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.47 | 25.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 47.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 2.21 |
| state index | 0.67 | 0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |