← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 39% | 44% | 2.53 | value: +12% |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 32% | 26% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3109.00 | 446.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1490.63 | 1507.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.92 | 28.15 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 32.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.75 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |