← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig win | 56% | 63% | 1.76 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.79 | fair |
| Duisburg win | 19% | 12% | 5.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Braunschweig | Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2866.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1507.53 | 1378.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.52 | -22.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| league points | 34.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.58 |
| state index | -0.33 | -1.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |