← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 52% | 43% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.66 | value: +15% |
| Bielefeld win | 21% | 26% | 4.61 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bochum | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 461.00 | 1952.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1531.87 | 1412.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.80 | -17.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 39.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.17 |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |