← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Fri, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 44% | 41% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.35 | fair |
| Kaiserslautern win | 27% | 31% | 3.57 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 489.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1588.52 | 1515.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.35 | -11.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.29 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |