← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Wed, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 37% | 56% | 2.61 | value: +45% ⚠ |
| Bielefeld win | 33% | 19% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1948.00 | 1553.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1423.31 | 1631.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.77 | -8.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 28.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.91 |
| state index | -0.34 | 0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |