← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Tue, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 45% | 39% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
| SV Sandhausen win | 26% | 32% | 3.72 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Sandhausen | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 974.00 | 486.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1468.87 | 1575.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.39 | 24.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 33.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.78 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.68 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |