← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Tue, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 48% | 52% | 2.02 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Munich 1860 win | 24% | 19% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 182.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1530.06 | 1396.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.80 | -10.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 31.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 0.78 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |