← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Tue, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum win | 40% | 34% | 2.46 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 32% | 38% | 3.09 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 0.00 | 456.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1431.75 | 1518.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.70 | 27.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 24.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |