← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +5% |
| Bielefeld win | 26% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 3102.00 | 1945.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1492.39 | 1429.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.71 | 11.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 29.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.27 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |