← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg win | 40% | 26% | 2.47 | fair |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 31% | 44% | 3.13 | value: +37% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Duisburg | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 439.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1388.76 | 1485.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.91 | -5.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 13.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.59 | 1.64 |
| state index | -0.99 | -0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |