← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Fri, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 59% | 48% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 3.99 | value: +13% |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 17% | 23% | 5.77 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 970.00 | 240.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1431.94 | 1596.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.66 | 25.19 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 18.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 2.14 |
| state index | -1.46 | 0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |