← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Fri, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 41% | 51% | 2.40 | value: +22% |
| Greuther Furth win | 31% | 25% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 482.00 | 1092.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1570.58 | 1437.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.75 | -23.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 38.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |