← 2. Bundesliga 2015-16 · Sun, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld win | 48% | 41% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +6% |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 23% | 28% | 4.25 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bielefeld | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1938.00 | 965.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1431.68 | 1430.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.82 | -50.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 27.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.81 |
| state index | 0.05 | -1.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |