← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, May 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 64% | 44% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 31% | 4.86 | value: +51% |
| Aalen win | 16% | 25% | 6.21 | value: +57% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 204.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1494.04 | 1430.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.42 | -1.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 42.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |