← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 39% | 41% | 2.47 | fair |
| Nurnberg win | 35% | 29% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.76 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1434.88 | 1504.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.33 | 20.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| league points | 33.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.31 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |