← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 60% | 38% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 35% | 3.91 | value: +38% |
| RB Leipzig win | 15% | 26% | 6.44 | value: +69% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 593.00 | 105.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1555.17 | 1504.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.03 | -15.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 60.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.47 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |