← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 37% | 36% | 2.64 | fair |
| Greuther Furth win | 34% | 30% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.34 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 807.00 | 897.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1456.71 | 1566.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.41 | 7.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 34.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.75 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |