← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 54% | 47% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.97 | value: +19% |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 21% | 23% | 4.62 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 623.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1421.13 | 1565.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.51 | -25.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| league points | 34.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.69 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |