← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, May 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalen win | 50% | 34% | 1.96 | fair |
| Heidenheim win | 25% | 33% | 3.88 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 25% | 32% | 3.89 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aalen | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2815.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1446.38 | 1486.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.19 | 17.83 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 33.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.31 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |