← EFL League Two 2005-06 · Mon, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L Probert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Cheltenham win | 46% | 20% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 40% | 3.20 | value: +29% |
| Darlington win | 26% | 39% | 3.75 | value: +47% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 23 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.