← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 50% | 44% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.54 | value: +13% |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 22% | 24% | 4.37 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1387.21 | 1574.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.12 | 8.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 28.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.73 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |