← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, May 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalen win | 47% | 39% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.57 | value: +13% |
| Bochum win | 25% | 29% | 3.85 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aalen | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1444.91 | 1432.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.48 | -26.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 30.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |