← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 39% | 22% | 2.51 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.18 | value: +11% |
| Darmstadt win | 30% | 44% | 3.20 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 882.00 | 608.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1545.36 | 1598.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.04 | 19.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 50.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.59 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |