← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 52% | 38% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.45 | value: +5% |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 20% | 32% | 4.94 | value: +56% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2886.00 | 572.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1459.19 | 1578.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.26 | 6.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 37.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.35 | 0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |