← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 39% | 48% | 2.48 | value: +19% |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 31% | 25% | 3.12 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2794.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1463.96 | 1422.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.26 | 17.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 35.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 0.97 |
| state index | -0.81 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |