← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 39% | 47% | 2.48 | value: +17% |
| Munich 1860 win | 32% | 26% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 83.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1495.53 | 1438.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.92 | 6.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 40.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.65 | -0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |