← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Mon, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 61% | 40% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 36% | 3.94 | value: +41% |
| RB Leipzig win | 14% | 24% | 7.04 | value: +72% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 596.00 | 78.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1590.15 | 1530.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.29 | 23.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 50.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.54 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |