← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.58 | fair |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 20% | 20% | 4.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 779.00 | 2879.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1462.14 | 1457.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.77 | -4.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| league points | 30.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.29 |
| state index | -1.01 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |