← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 56% | 57% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.65 | value: +6% |
| Heidenheim win | 17% | 14% | 5.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 869.00 | 2787.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1558.51 | 1459.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.76 | -13.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 49.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.21 |
| state index | 0.50 | -0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |