← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalen win | 36% | 30% | 2.74 | fair |
| Braunschweig win | 35% | 36% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.28 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aalen | Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2543.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1431.74 | 1527.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.74 | 7.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |