← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 37% | 43% | 2.64 | value: +14% |
| Nurnberg win | 34% | 29% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 122.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1411.97 | 1484.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.18 | -40.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 25.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.25 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |