← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Mon, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 51% | 39% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.52 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 21% | 32% | 4.63 | value: +48% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 71.00 | 589.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1501.09 | 1591.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.52 | 23.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 39.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.81 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |