← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 41% | 20% | 2.39 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.26 | value: +4% |
| Darmstadt win | 29% | 49% | 3.34 | value: +62% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 160.00 | 860.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1484.19 | 1558.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.48 | 14.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 34.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.78 |
| state index | -0.81 | 0.55 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |