← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 47% | 34% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.27 | value: +5% |
| Heidenheim win | 23% | 34% | 4.27 | value: +46% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2778.00 | 556.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1468.70 | 1563.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.27 | -0.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 34.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.93 |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |