← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Munich 1860 win | 46% | 51% | 2.13 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.43 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 26% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Munich 1860 | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1452.83 | 1381.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.13 | -32.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| state index | 0.06 | -1.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |