← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern win | 63% | 45% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 31% | 4.00 | value: +22% |
| Heidenheim win | 12% | 24% | 7.98 | value: +94% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kaiserslautern | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 580.00 | 2772.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1580.37 | 1479.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.45 | -18.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 46.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 12.96 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.31 |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |