← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 43% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.33 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 27% | 24% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 751.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1380.09 | 1471.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.39 | -25.72 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 21.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 1.12 |
| state index | -1.06 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |