← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 36% | 38% | 2.72 | fair |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 34% | 28% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.21 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 48.00 | 840.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1508.50 | 1564.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.16 | 23.05 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 36.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.80 |
| state index | -0.67 | 0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |