← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 47% | 38% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.25 | value: +10% |
| Karlsruhe win | 23% | 28% | 4.23 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 530.00 | 1109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1571.83 | 1547.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.98 | 2.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| league points | 48.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |