← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Fri, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 55% | 52% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.65 | fair |
| Munich 1860 win | 18% | 20% | 5.37 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Greuther Furth | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 742.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1495.17 | 1431.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.87 | -5.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 28.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |