← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Mon, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 47% | 35% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 37% | 3.39 | value: +27% |
| RB Leipzig win | 24% | 28% | 3.98 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1103.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1550.43 | 1506.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.12 | -26.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.43 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |