← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greuther Furth win | 39% | 43% | 2.52 | value: +7% |
| Aalen win | 31% | 26% | 3.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Aalen | Greuther Furth |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 736.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1410.00 | 1495.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.25 | -9.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 19.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| state index | -1.07 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |