← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Fri, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 48% | 43% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.26 | value: +3% |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 22% | 25% | 4.38 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1406.74 | 1558.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.23 | -21.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| league points | 21.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.96 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |