← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 50% | 48% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.59 | fair |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 23% | 25% | 4.32 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 75.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1382.86 | 1405.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.24 | 20.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 17.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 0.91 |
| state index | -0.69 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |