← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Sandhausen win | 41% | 33% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.24 | value: +15% |
| Aalen win | 29% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Sandhausen | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 607.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1428.71 | 1422.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.39 | -14.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 25.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.86 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.86 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |