← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 38% | 30% | 2.60 | fair |
| Karlsruhe win | 34% | 40% | 2.91 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 119.00 | 1094.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1525.67 | 1549.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.45 | -1.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 33.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.73 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |