← 2. Bundesliga 2014-15 · Fri, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt win | 43% | 45% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.22 | value: +7% |
| Braunschweig win | 27% | 22% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 818.00 | 2493.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1544.93 | 1527.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.46 | -12.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 38.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.55 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |