← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 49% | 41% | 1.98 | fair |
| Munich 1860 win | 26% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.94 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Union Berlin | Munich 1860 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2536.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1461.63 | 1476.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.31 | -5.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 43.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.42 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |