← 2. Bundesliga 2013-14 · Sun, May 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 73% | 50% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 27% | 5.78 | value: +57% |
| Aalen win | 10% | 23% | 9.64 | value: +119% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Aalen |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 314.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1566.85 | 1475.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.85 | 35.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 59.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.33 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |